And so that has implications on warfare. People should remember the 1980s, the US, including US Marines, were on the receiving end of Iranian-linked Hezbollah in Lebanon. It needs to make it very clear this is not about regime change, per se, this is about what the Administration has largely said: missiles, Quds Force activities in the region, and a nuclear program.Andrew Schwartz: Would another option for the United States to be to gather the world around this incident and say we need to do something to A, stop Iran from these kinds of activities; and B, bring them back into some form of dialogue so going forward, we're all talking instead of having this kind of activity?Seth Jones: Yeah. So I think in that sense, how to respond and how to be viewed as supporting the Saudis, I think there certainly will be a line of response in the US, if the US responds directly, that we are essentially doing the work of the Saudis because it was the Saudis that were targeted. I knew there's an aircraft carrier out there.

I mean, my understanding is the damage has been somewhat limited, meaning it may take days and weeks rather than months to get much of of the oil now pumping through various components of facilities, like Abqaiq.Seth Jones: For broader global implications, what it may also mean, including for countries like the United States, is to increasingly focus on its own sources of oil, whether it's directly in the US or with neighboring Canada, rather than having to rely on an area, the Middle East, which has been prone to severe conflict. There's actually a theory that this could of been Iran's military, without the knowledge of Iran's leadership, to try to prevent Iran's leadership from meeting with Donald Trump. If the US gets into a war with Iran, Iran has the capabilities to conduct assassinations in other areas of the Middle East. I think a number of those steps, the Iranians will never budge on. And I think that the likelihood that the US is going to get regime change in Iran is close to zero. I mean, there are plenty of other hawks in the Administration on Iran. A Project of the Center for Strategic and International StudiesFocuses on issues relating to air power and power projection.Assesses NASA, other civil agencies, and private space companies.Addresses domestic and international security concerns in space.Explore fundamental concepts in the air and space domains.Discover Aerospace Security’s interactive data and resources.Search for primary source documents from the history of aerospace policy.The Aerospace Security Project at CSIS explores the technological, budgetary, and policy issues related to the air and space domains and innovative operational concepts for air and space forces.Sign up to hear about upcoming Aerospace Security publications and events at CSIS.© 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This is just much larger than what we've seen in the past. And it was not that long ago that the US publicly revealed an Iranian linked assassination against the Saudi Ambassador in Washington at Cafe Milano, of all places.Seth Jones: So I think this does have implications for the US, including economic ones, as well.Andrew Schwartz: You know, Bob and I don't go to Cafe Milano unless we're invited to a thing. So the US is operating largely on its own right now, and I think that is probably the single biggest challenge.Bob Schieffer: Dr. Jones, thank you for bringing us the truth of the matter. And there's, at this point, no serious political dialogue on relief of those sanctions. Yumi Araki. I think they wanted to send a very clear message, in this case, to the Saudis and the oil infrastructure in particular, that they can inflict pain just like the west can on the Iranian economy.Bob Schieffer: Well, was this aimed at us? So there are those kinds of options. It was a partner. Or, does the US escalate?

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